6/29/09 Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Market CommentaryThis weeks economic calendar is compacted into three days instead of the usual five, with no reports due out on Monday and with the markets being closed on Friday ahead of the 4th of July weekend. Tuesday information on chain sores sales from ICSC-Goldman & Redbook, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI), Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), and Consumer Confidence all set to released. In addition, there is prominent Fed officials giving speeches, so investors will be paying close attention. On Wednesday, we get a glimpse of the labor market from the Monster Employment Index, Challenger Job-Cut Report and ADP Employment Report. Mortgage application information is provided by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey. Major reports due are the ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales Index, all set for 7am pt. Then comes Thursday, when the all important June Employment Situation will be released by the Labor Department, detailing the non-farm payroll numbers, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. To further increase the drama, Jobless Claims, Factory Orders and the Treasury’s announcement of the size 3yr, 10yr and 30yr securities to be auctioned the following week finish the short week. The amount of information in such a short time frame needed to be digested by traders can lead to extreme volatility, especially in front of a 3 day weekend. Buckle up, it may be a bumpy ride.

MBS Market Updates

MBS prices are up +5/32 (FNMA 30-yr 5.0 at 100.10), which is about 26/32 higher than yesterday at this time. Favorable repricing took place yesterday. The 30-yr fixed FNMA required net yield (60 day) is now at 5.38%, from 5.59% yesterday. Early investors may have priced at higher levels.  This morning, May Import Prices ex-oil rose 0.2%. The data had little impact. MBS markets continued yesterday’s rally as some investors believe that the recent sharp rise in yields may have become overdone, at least in the short-term. At current levels, demand was strong for this week’s Treasury auctions. Of note, a report this morning suggests that the Fed is unlikely to increase its MBS purchase program unless economic growth slows more than expected. At the June 24th meeting, Fed officials will consider spreading out the MBS purchases over a longer time frame. The Fed wants to help keep mortgage rates down without creating too large a distortion in MBS markets. The Dow is down 25 points. Consumer Sentiment will be released at 10:00 et.